H1B Lottery Success Rate: What Graduates Face and the EB-5 Alternative
July 17, 2024 · EB-5 · 10 min read
Staying in the United States after graduation is the goal for many international students, and the H-1B visa has long been the most common route to doing so. Securing one, however, is far from straightforward: the H-1B lottery success rate depends on how many registrations are filed against a fixed annual cap, and demand has run well ahead of that cap.
Staying in the United States after graduation is the goal for many international students, and the H-1B visa has long been the most common route to doing so. Securing one, however, is far from straightforward: the H-1B lottery success rate depends on how many registrations are filed against a fixed annual cap, and demand has run well ahead of that cap.
The H-1B is a U.S. nonimmigrant work visa for foreign nationals with professional qualifications or specialized skills in a specific field such as science, engineering, IT, medicine, or another specialty occupation. Eligible applicants hold at least a bachelor’s degree or an equivalent qualification in that field, have expertise in their line of work, and are sponsored by a U.S. company for a position related to their specialty. The H-1B visa allows the holder to stay and work in the United States for a set period, up to 6 years. That is why the H-1B is the visa most international students pursue after graduation to extend their stay in the United States.
Waiting on the lottery just to be allowed to file
Each year, hundreds of thousands of H-1B registrations are filed, while the annual H-1B cap is only 85,000 visas: 65,000 under the regular cap, plus a further 20,000 exempt from that cap for beneficiaries holding a U.S. master’s degree or higher. Within the 65,000, a further 6,800 are set aside under the H-1B1 program for nationals of Chile and Singapore. Because demand far exceeds the cap, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) has to select which registrants may go on to file a petition; for the fiscal year 2025 cap season it did so by computer-generated random selection among unique beneficiaries.
Being selected in the lottery does not mean an H-1B visa will be issued. The sponsoring employer must then file a formal H-1B petition (Form I-129) for the candidate with USCIS, and that petition goes through several further stages of review and adjudication. Even once USCIS approves it, a beneficiary who is outside the United States must still apply for the H-1B visa at a U.S. consulate, where it is the Department of State, not USCIS, that issues the visa.
Competition is sharpened further by candidates from countries with strong education and technology sectors, such as India and China. On April 1, 2024, USCIS announced that it had received enough registrations in the initial registration period to reach the H-1B cap for fiscal year 2025 (October 1, 2024 to September 30, 2025). Of the 442,000 eligible unique beneficiaries registered, the agency randomly selected 114,017 to proceed to a formal H-1B petition — roughly one quarter of those who had registered. If the petitions filed are not enough to fill the 85,000 visas, USCIS may run an additional selection round for the remaining places.
For an international student, an H-1B visa means being able to stay in the United States after graduation, gain valuable work experience that lays the foundation for a future career, and pursue permanent residence in a major economy. Those who are not selected face the prospect of returning home, despite the time and money already invested in a U.S. education. Employers can also be reluctant to hire candidates who are international students, because the sponsorship process takes time and administrative effort. For graduates, that adds a second layer of difficulty to the H-1B route.
The EB-5 route: a U.S. green card without a lottery or an employer sponsor
Against the uncertainty of the H-1B selection process, the EB-5 immigrant investor program is worth considering for families who want to plan a clearer path to U.S. permanent residence for a son or daughter finishing their studies — one that carries the same rights as other permanent residents, rather than a temporary work status.
Enacted in 1990, the EB-5 program allows foreign investors to apply for a U.S. green card directly by investing in a qualifying commercial enterprise and creating at least 10 full-time jobs for qualifying employees. The minimum investment is US$800,000.
Compared with the H-1B visa, EB-5 offers a graduate several advantages:
- No random selection. Unlike the H-1B lottery, the EB-5 program does not turn on a draw: a petition that meets the investment and job creation requirements is assessed on its own merits, which makes EB-5 a more predictable route to a green card. Approval is never automatic, and EB-5 capital must remain at risk under U.S. law.
- No education or professional experience requirement.
- No employer sponsorship required.
- No restriction to a particular field or occupation, unlike a graduate working on a temporary visa. An EB-5 green card gives access to employment in any industry, apart from roles that require U.S. citizenship or a security clearance, such as parts of the defense sector.
Notably, under the EB-5 Reform and Integrity Act of 2022, an applicant already in the United States in a nonimmigrant status such as F-1 (the student visa) may file an application to adjust status (Form I-485) while the EB-5 petition is pending — provided an immigrant visa is immediately available for their country of chargeability under the Department of State’s monthly Visa Bulletin. Where that condition is met, the student may remain in the United States in a period of authorized stay while the application is pending, even after their F-1 status would otherwise have ended.
Alongside Form I-485, they may file Form I-765 and Form I-131. Once approved, these provide employment authorization and advance parole, so that travel abroad does not cause USCIS to treat the pending Form I-485 as abandoned. Re-entry still depends on inspection at the port of entry.
Comparing the two routes, EB-5 is the more predictable: it does not turn on a random draw or on finding an employer willing to sponsor. Which route suits a particular family depends on its goals, timing and resources, but EB-5 offers a more direct path to a U.S. green card and permanent residence. It also carries investment risk that an H-1B application does not, so it warrants advice from an independent immigration attorney and a financial advisor.
If you are considering a U.S. green card through the EB-5 immigrant investor program, contact IMM Group or leave your details below. Our experienced advisors will provide detailed guidance and help assess the prospects of your case. We will keep your personal data confidential and use the information you provide only to advise on your family’s case.
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